Thursday, November 25, 2010

Predicting the recession

I only personally saw one person predict the scale of this recession correctly. While in grad school I went to a great many energy lectures. At one of these in 2006, Kenneth Deffeyes gave a short talk about peak oil. In this talk, he predicted that the world had already produced the most oil it ever would, and the result would be the biggest recession we have seen in decades. He was just about laughed off the stage.

Somehow I think he got the last laugh on this one. So far his predictions both proved correct. We produced more oil in 2005 than any year before or since, and we had the biggest recession in decades. Apparently he has a new book out on this subject, I may actually go and buy this one.

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