Saturday, August 28, 2010

Following my expectations

The real estate market in Riverside County appears to really have come close to hitting bottom. I anticipate that bottom means inflation adjusted 2000 prices. To get inflation adjusted 2010 dollars based on 2000 dollars this calculator claims that the conversion factor is 1.28.

According to Zillow, In September 2000, Riverside home prices were averaging 153k, and in Corona they were 204k. So if they tracked inflation, I would predict current prices would be 196k, and 261k respectively.

The actual prices Zillow gives are 207k, and 299k, down from a peak of 421k and 527k. So really, I would feel safe buying a home in Riverside county. The bubble is over... In reality, I expect that they will overshoot a little because of a combination of low expectations, strict lending requirements, and student loans limiting the willingness of buyers to enter the market. This is still a pretty safe place to put your money though.

Orange county is another matter. It probably has another 150-200k to fall. In 2000 median home prices in Orange were 290k, and in Huntington beach they were 330k. So if they tracked inflation today they would be 371k, and 422k. The actual numbers are 500k and 595k.

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