This blog post does a really good job of covering my favorite reasons to think Orange county home prices will continue their recent declines. Another 100k drop over the next five years seems the most likely outcome.
Two ratios need to come back to historical norms for me to believe that things are back to normal. The ratio of prices in Orange county to Riverside county and the ratio of home prices to median income. Neither of these numbers make sense, funneling new home buyers into inland counties while prices fall further.
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