To an impressive degree the housing bubble has ended. There are a few areas like Southern California where people have been rich enough to prolong the pain, but in general it really seems like the housing bubble is over. Here are some more places the housing bubble has ended:
Las Vegas home prices:
Las Vegas Metro Home Values - Interactive chart From 134k in 2001, up to 305k at peak, down to 126k today. That makes it 40k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Reno home prices:
From 148k in 2001, up to 338k at peak, down to 158k today. That makes it 24k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Phoenix home prices:
From 99k in 2001, up to 193k at peak, down to 126k today. That makes it about 4k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Denver home prices:
From 191k in 2001, up to 228k at peak, down to 199k today. That makes it 36k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices. It also means Denver managed to never have a housing bubble.
Portland home prices:
From 166k in 2001, up to 295k at peak, down to 210k today. That makes it 6k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Seattle home prices:
From 274k in 2001, up to 465k at peak, down to 344k today. That makes it 7k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Minneapolis home prices:
From 142k in 2001, up to 223k at peak, down to 162k today. That makes it 12k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Chicago home prices:
From 165k in 2001, up to 265k at peak, down to 177k today. That makes it 26k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Miami Home prices:
From 135k in 2001, up to 360k at peak, down to 172k today. That makes it 6k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Orlando home prices:
From 108k in 2001, up to 233k at peak, down to 88k today. A full 45k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Atlanta home prices:
From 152k in 2001, up to 203k at peak, down to 128k today. A whopping 59k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Raleigh home prices:
From 151k in 2001, up to 198k at peak, down to 171k today. That makes it 15k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Pittsburgh home prices:
From 57k in 2001, up to 79k today. That makes it 9k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Cleveland home prices:
From 71k in 2001, up to 92k at peak, down to 54k today. That makes it 33k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
I am almost starting to believe the real estate industry when they claim it is a good time to buy. In a great deal of the country it really seems to be. Almost as interesting is the fact few people seem to have caught up to this information. For example if you look at the comments section of this article, almost no one seems to believe we are near bottom. That, along with overbuilding and the huge number of young people crushed under student loans, makes me think we will likely overshoot the bottom in many areas. Buying homes, and renting them, might actually start to make some financial sense for a change.
However, any way I look at it I don't come to the same conclusion in Southern California. Home prices are just too high compared to what they were a decade ago, without any good reason for them to be so. Maybe another two or three years of people leaving for these cheaper cities will change that though.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Playing with google
Someone pointed out that silly results come up with a google search of glmory. This post is entirely to try and move less annoying sites down the list by moving slightly less annoying things in google up the list.
glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory,
glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory,
Another crime article
Maybe the message that we live in the safest time in history will eventually sink in and people will stop being so paranoid. Somehow I am less than optimistic however. Still I am always happy when I see another article talking about how crime rates are at twenty year lows.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
No, you can't have my zip code
In an interesting ruling, the California Supreme Court has decided that it is against the law for merchants to make you provide a zip code when they use their credit card.
Tall buildings
The Atlantic has a particularly good article on why we should make it as easy as possible to build buildings as tall as possible in urban areas. As a country it really seems like we have become anti-development. This works well when protecting sensitive ecosystems, but is absolutely silly when applied to urban development. Few buildings are so nice as to require saving from demolition.
Another interesting fact:
Another interesting fact:
"The cheapest way to deliver new housing is in the form of mass-produced two-story homes, which typically cost only about $84 a square foot to erect. That low cost explains why Atlanta and Dallas and Houston are able to supply so much new housing at low prices, and why so many Americans have ended up buying affordable homes in those places... for ordinary skyscrapers, it doesn’t cost more than $500,000 to put up a nice 1,200-square-foot apartment. The land costs something, but in a 40-story building with one 1,200-square-foot unit per floor, each unit is using only 30 square feet of Manhattan—less than a thousandth of an acre. At those heights, the land costs become pretty small. If there were no restrictions on new construction, then prices would eventually come down to somewhere near construction costs, about $500,000 for a new apartment. That’s a lot more than the $210,000 that it costs to put up a 2,500-square-foot house in Houston—but a lot less than the $1 million or more that such an apartment often costs in Manhattan."
Monday, February 7, 2011
Places in California the housing bubble ended
I have long been predicting that home prices would at least hit inflation adjusted 2000 prices. My logic simply being that median incomes are no higher than then while unemployment rates are higher. How can home prices possibly stay higher than they were then?
Over building, poor local economies, and the shattering of the myth of housing as a good investment may cause home prices to over shoot 2000 prices; but outside areas with dramatic economic growth I don't expect prices to stay above those levels.
Now many areas in California seem to be at those price levels:
Sacramento home prices:
from 143k in 2001, up to 352k, back down to 171k. That makes it 4k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Fresno home prices:
From 97k in 2001, up to 282k at the peak and back down to 137k today. Only 10k more to fall to hit 2001 price levels.
Merced home prices:
From 117k in 2001, up to 339k at peak now down to 116k. This is a whopping 27k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Stockton home prices:
From 146k in 2001, up to 374k at the peak, now down to 130k. An astounding 50k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Riverside home prices:
from 147k in 2001, up to 412k at peak, down to 189k today. Only 9k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
San Bernardino home prices:
From 100k in 2001, up to 327k at peak, down to 122k today. Currently 1k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices
Bakersfield home Prices:
From 100k in 2001, up to 309k at peak, down to 131k today. Currently 8k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Santa Rosa home prices:
From 321k in 2001, up to 556k at peak, down to 307k today. Currently an impressive 88k below 2001 prices.
Gilroy home prices:
From 439k in 2001, to 724k at peak, down to 381k today. An almost investment worthy 100k lower than inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Fairfield home prices:
From 224k in 2001, up to 485k at peak, down to 217k today. A full 58k lower than 2001 prices.
Hayward home prices:
From 307k in 2001, up to 583k at peak, down to 280k today. A quite impressive 98k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Madera home prices:
From 107k in 2001, up to 303k at peak, down to 123k today. Currently 8k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Salinas home prices:
From 282k in 2001, up to 609k at peak, down to 226k today. An astronomical 121k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Santa Clara home prices:
From 501k in 2001, up to 696k at peak, down to 533k today. A full 83k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
More expensive areas in Southern California have yet to hit bottom. Inland California has had its bubble and can now return to its regularly scheduled economy. The bay area may stay high relative to the rest of the state, but it appears in much of it all of the gains from the past bubble have been eaten up. I have the poor luck of living in the one part of the state some of the bubble price gains have stuck. Now to must wait for further falls in the Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange areas. Now that prices are so cheap inland it is all but inevitable though in all but the wealthiest of areas. These inland areas will act as a sponge, sucking demand from the more expensive areas as people realize just how much farther their money would go elsewhere.
Over building, poor local economies, and the shattering of the myth of housing as a good investment may cause home prices to over shoot 2000 prices; but outside areas with dramatic economic growth I don't expect prices to stay above those levels.
Now many areas in California seem to be at those price levels:
Sacramento home prices:
from 143k in 2001, up to 352k, back down to 171k. That makes it 4k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Fresno home prices:
From 97k in 2001, up to 282k at the peak and back down to 137k today. Only 10k more to fall to hit 2001 price levels.
Merced home prices:
From 117k in 2001, up to 339k at peak now down to 116k. This is a whopping 27k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Stockton home prices:
From 146k in 2001, up to 374k at the peak, now down to 130k. An astounding 50k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Riverside home prices:
from 147k in 2001, up to 412k at peak, down to 189k today. Only 9k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
San Bernardino home prices:
From 100k in 2001, up to 327k at peak, down to 122k today. Currently 1k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices
Bakersfield home Prices:
From 100k in 2001, up to 309k at peak, down to 131k today. Currently 8k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Santa Rosa home prices:
From 321k in 2001, up to 556k at peak, down to 307k today. Currently an impressive 88k below 2001 prices.
Gilroy home prices:
From 439k in 2001, to 724k at peak, down to 381k today. An almost investment worthy 100k lower than inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Fairfield home prices:
From 224k in 2001, up to 485k at peak, down to 217k today. A full 58k lower than 2001 prices.
Hayward home prices:
From 307k in 2001, up to 583k at peak, down to 280k today. A quite impressive 98k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Madera home prices:
From 107k in 2001, up to 303k at peak, down to 123k today. Currently 8k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Salinas home prices:
From 282k in 2001, up to 609k at peak, down to 226k today. An astronomical 121k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Santa Clara home prices:
From 501k in 2001, up to 696k at peak, down to 533k today. A full 83k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
More expensive areas in Southern California have yet to hit bottom. Inland California has had its bubble and can now return to its regularly scheduled economy. The bay area may stay high relative to the rest of the state, but it appears in much of it all of the gains from the past bubble have been eaten up. I have the poor luck of living in the one part of the state some of the bubble price gains have stuck. Now to must wait for further falls in the Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange areas. Now that prices are so cheap inland it is all but inevitable though in all but the wealthiest of areas. These inland areas will act as a sponge, sucking demand from the more expensive areas as people realize just how much farther their money would go elsewhere.
Sunday, February 6, 2011
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