Sunday, February 27, 2011
ItunesU
ItunesU in the Apple store is really starting to get pretty good. I just exploited my terrabyte hard drive and downloaded over 500 lectures. It still lacks many more boring subjects I would want such as graduate level electromagnetics. Still, it is getting better, I found hundreds of energy lectures from Stanford, MIT, and UC TV. I even found a full course on Nuclear Engineering!
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Aquarium
I finally gave in and got a little aquarium again. It is only 6 gallons, mostly because I am pretty sure I can convince anywhere I live that a 6 gallon aquarium is alright. In reality, buying the aquarium used it isn't a whole heck of a lot cheaper to get a 6 gallon aquarium than my old 29 gallon aquarium. Still, it might make me a bit more skilled with planted aquariums.
I am probably going to get one or two more plant varieties and just raise cherry shrimp and Amano shrimp, perhaps a few ottos if the algae is bad.
Right now it looks like crap though:
Hopefully after a week or two for the water to get less cloudy and the plants to grow it will look better. I may just get rid of most of the hornwort. More than likely I will wait until the tank is doing well though to do so. As a fast growing plant it should do wonders for water quality.
I am probably going to get one or two more plant varieties and just raise cherry shrimp and Amano shrimp, perhaps a few ottos if the algae is bad.
Right now it looks like crap though:
Hopefully after a week or two for the water to get less cloudy and the plants to grow it will look better. I may just get rid of most of the hornwort. More than likely I will wait until the tank is doing well though to do so. As a fast growing plant it should do wonders for water quality.
No more cards
I finally managed to dig my way out of credit cards. After something like three years where I could not pay off the full balance my tax return was finally enough to dig my way out of the last of the debt. I was even able to send a $2000 check to my student loans.
What to do with savings now is a bit less clear to me. I have 8k in student loans. However looking at their interest rates I am only paying 6.5% fixed or 2.2% variable rates. This is nothing like what the credit cards used to cost me. Total interest is under $500 a year. Still, an absolutely certain investment of even this return beats putting the money in a bank by quite a bit. I also have a strong phobia of debt and would much prefer to be paying absolutely none of it before I buy a house.
On the other hand, if I started saving now I am likely to get a pretty good down payment in time for the bottom of the Southern California real estate market. That really could save me more than paying off the student loans would.
What to do with savings now is a bit less clear to me. I have 8k in student loans. However looking at their interest rates I am only paying 6.5% fixed or 2.2% variable rates. This is nothing like what the credit cards used to cost me. Total interest is under $500 a year. Still, an absolutely certain investment of even this return beats putting the money in a bank by quite a bit. I also have a strong phobia of debt and would much prefer to be paying absolutely none of it before I buy a house.
On the other hand, if I started saving now I am likely to get a pretty good down payment in time for the bottom of the Southern California real estate market. That really could save me more than paying off the student loans would.
Job security
I just saw my first Chevy Volt the other day. That encourages me, at least someone is crazy enough to try it. Everything I have heard about this car says it is practical. Unlike the Leaf or Tesla it could fit into my life without trouble. Now it just needs to be cheap enough, or oil prices to be expensive enough, for it to make economic sense.
Speaking of oil prices, back up over $100 a barrel this week. In 2008, when oil was about $120 a barrel I predicted that in the next 5 years we would see both $50 a barrel oil and $200 a barrel oil. That prediction may yet prove crazy but since gas is this expensive in the winter I certainly wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be correct by the end of summer.
In other news the California Senate voted to raise the renewable cap to 33% by 2020. This will be both difficult and expensive. It does have some real advantages if the price of fossil fuels goes up too much though. A big enough supply shock and we will really look like we knew what we are doing. Of course going the nuclear route would have been far more effective but this is California so that would be asking a bit much.
The conclusion I draw from these observations is there is quite a lot of job security in the electric power industry. We have to rebuild the electrical system built in the 60s and 70s while completely rearranging the system to use more renewable energy than has ever been used and complying with ever more stringent safety requirements. At the same time most of the experts are well past retirement age and very few good college programs exist anymore in power engineering.
Speaking of oil prices, back up over $100 a barrel this week. In 2008, when oil was about $120 a barrel I predicted that in the next 5 years we would see both $50 a barrel oil and $200 a barrel oil. That prediction may yet prove crazy but since gas is this expensive in the winter I certainly wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be correct by the end of summer.
In other news the California Senate voted to raise the renewable cap to 33% by 2020. This will be both difficult and expensive. It does have some real advantages if the price of fossil fuels goes up too much though. A big enough supply shock and we will really look like we knew what we are doing. Of course going the nuclear route would have been far more effective but this is California so that would be asking a bit much.
The conclusion I draw from these observations is there is quite a lot of job security in the electric power industry. We have to rebuild the electrical system built in the 60s and 70s while completely rearranging the system to use more renewable energy than has ever been used and complying with ever more stringent safety requirements. At the same time most of the experts are well past retirement age and very few good college programs exist anymore in power engineering.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Lemon batteries won't light up lights
The experimental method showed me something new today. Lemon batteries don't exist. Well, they do exist, but they suck. I am talking about the type of battery you can make by putting copper and zinc into a lemon than connecting them with wires to a lightbulb.
It turns out that this is close to being a myth. You can in fact make a battery this way, but it takes about 5,000 Lemons to light a flashlight bulb. Maybe I can get one to light an LED, but even that takes several lemons in series.
It turns out that this is close to being a myth. You can in fact make a battery this way, but it takes about 5,000 Lemons to light a flashlight bulb. Maybe I can get one to light an LED, but even that takes several lemons in series.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Did different houses cause it
Using straight up median prices as I have been can be misleading. If only cheaper homes were selling than it would overstate the drop in prices.
However that does not seem to be happening on a large scale. Not only are expensive homes in California selling better than they have for years, but the Case-Shiller price index, which follows the price of the same home over time, shows the same effect. Houses nationwide are near prebubble levels, while Southern California has some ways to fall.
Another blogger made up a good graph of inflation adjusted home prices showing this:
However that does not seem to be happening on a large scale. Not only are expensive homes in California selling better than they have for years, but the Case-Shiller price index, which follows the price of the same home over time, shows the same effect. Houses nationwide are near prebubble levels, while Southern California has some ways to fall.
Another blogger made up a good graph of inflation adjusted home prices showing this:
Did median income cause it?
My premise that housing prices in Orange county and LA counties are too high is based largely on the idea that median incomes have stagnated while median home prices have increased. This is true for the country as a whole, but I never bothered checking whether it was true here. Perhaps incomes have increased, driving up housing prices in this area despite the downturn elsewhere.
Median household income in Orange County in 2000: $58,820
Median home price in orange county in 2000: $270,000
Ratio of home prices to income: 4.6
Median household income in Orange County 2005-2009: $73,738
Median home price in Orange county today: 441,700
Ratio of home prices to income: 5.99
The income data isn't quite as new as I would like, but it is unlikely that it went up much during the recession so I consider this to be reasonable. By this measure I would expect the home price in orange county to fall by another 1.4 times the median income, or about $100,000
For comparison lets look at Riverside county, where I suspect that home prices have hit bottom:
Median household income in Riverside county in 2000: $42,887
Median home price in Riverside county in 2000: $146,500
Ratio of home prices to income: 3.4
Median household income in Riverside county 2005-2009: $58,155
Median home price in Riverside county today: 203,300
Ratio of home prices to income: 3.5
The end of the bubble neatly settling at pre-bubble prices. The future of Orange county
Median household income in Orange County in 2000: $58,820
Median home price in orange county in 2000: $270,000
Ratio of home prices to income: 4.6
Median household income in Orange County 2005-2009: $73,738
Median home price in Orange county today: 441,700
Ratio of home prices to income: 5.99
The income data isn't quite as new as I would like, but it is unlikely that it went up much during the recession so I consider this to be reasonable. By this measure I would expect the home price in orange county to fall by another 1.4 times the median income, or about $100,000
For comparison lets look at Riverside county, where I suspect that home prices have hit bottom:
Median household income in Riverside county in 2000: $42,887
Median home price in Riverside county in 2000: $146,500
Ratio of home prices to income: 3.4
Median household income in Riverside county 2005-2009: $58,155
Median home price in Riverside county today: 203,300
Ratio of home prices to income: 3.5
The end of the bubble neatly settling at pre-bubble prices. The future of Orange county
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Americans are not getting dumber
These past few weeks The Atlantic has been beating out The Economist and Slate as my favorite publication.
Today's obvious but undertold story, American kids aren't getting dumber; they just were never that smart.
Too many people talk as if American kids today are not meeting up to the standards set by previous generations. Direct comparisons generally show that they are almost exactly the same however. For example college graduation rates have fallen behind many other countries. This is not because less Americans graduate college though. As many graduate college as at any point in our history. Just other countries have advanced faster than us. That isn't good news, but it is hardly reason to go into freak out mode though. We are at least educated enough to figure out ways to continue to improve our lifestyle.
Today's obvious but undertold story, American kids aren't getting dumber; they just were never that smart.
Too many people talk as if American kids today are not meeting up to the standards set by previous generations. Direct comparisons generally show that they are almost exactly the same however. For example college graduation rates have fallen behind many other countries. This is not because less Americans graduate college though. As many graduate college as at any point in our history. Just other countries have advanced faster than us. That isn't good news, but it is hardly reason to go into freak out mode though. We are at least educated enough to figure out ways to continue to improve our lifestyle.
Myopia and the outdoors
Not sure I buy into this, but it makes for an interesting hypothesis.
Myopia, along with several others such as allergies and obesity, seems to be caused by modern lifestyles. But exactly what about how we live is causing the problem? It has never been clear. The usual explanation is too much staring at close up objects. Another idea I had not heard though is that we just don't spend enough time outside.
Sadly I doubt an experiment well enough designed to separate correlation from causation will ever be performed.
Myopia, along with several others such as allergies and obesity, seems to be caused by modern lifestyles. But exactly what about how we live is causing the problem? It has never been clear. The usual explanation is too much staring at close up objects. Another idea I had not heard though is that we just don't spend enough time outside.
Sadly I doubt an experiment well enough designed to separate correlation from causation will ever be performed.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
More places where the bubble ended
To an impressive degree the housing bubble has ended. There are a few areas like Southern California where people have been rich enough to prolong the pain, but in general it really seems like the housing bubble is over. Here are some more places the housing bubble has ended:
Las Vegas home prices:
Las Vegas Metro Home Values - Interactive chart From 134k in 2001, up to 305k at peak, down to 126k today. That makes it 40k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Reno home prices:
From 148k in 2001, up to 338k at peak, down to 158k today. That makes it 24k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Phoenix home prices:
From 99k in 2001, up to 193k at peak, down to 126k today. That makes it about 4k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Denver home prices:
From 191k in 2001, up to 228k at peak, down to 199k today. That makes it 36k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices. It also means Denver managed to never have a housing bubble.
Portland home prices:
From 166k in 2001, up to 295k at peak, down to 210k today. That makes it 6k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Seattle home prices:
From 274k in 2001, up to 465k at peak, down to 344k today. That makes it 7k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Minneapolis home prices:
From 142k in 2001, up to 223k at peak, down to 162k today. That makes it 12k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Chicago home prices:
From 165k in 2001, up to 265k at peak, down to 177k today. That makes it 26k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Miami Home prices:
From 135k in 2001, up to 360k at peak, down to 172k today. That makes it 6k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Orlando home prices:
From 108k in 2001, up to 233k at peak, down to 88k today. A full 45k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Atlanta home prices:
From 152k in 2001, up to 203k at peak, down to 128k today. A whopping 59k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Raleigh home prices:
From 151k in 2001, up to 198k at peak, down to 171k today. That makes it 15k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Pittsburgh home prices:
From 57k in 2001, up to 79k today. That makes it 9k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Cleveland home prices:
From 71k in 2001, up to 92k at peak, down to 54k today. That makes it 33k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
I am almost starting to believe the real estate industry when they claim it is a good time to buy. In a great deal of the country it really seems to be. Almost as interesting is the fact few people seem to have caught up to this information. For example if you look at the comments section of this article, almost no one seems to believe we are near bottom. That, along with overbuilding and the huge number of young people crushed under student loans, makes me think we will likely overshoot the bottom in many areas. Buying homes, and renting them, might actually start to make some financial sense for a change.
However, any way I look at it I don't come to the same conclusion in Southern California. Home prices are just too high compared to what they were a decade ago, without any good reason for them to be so. Maybe another two or three years of people leaving for these cheaper cities will change that though.
Las Vegas home prices:
Las Vegas Metro Home Values - Interactive chart From 134k in 2001, up to 305k at peak, down to 126k today. That makes it 40k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Reno home prices:
From 148k in 2001, up to 338k at peak, down to 158k today. That makes it 24k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Phoenix home prices:
From 99k in 2001, up to 193k at peak, down to 126k today. That makes it about 4k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Denver home prices:
From 191k in 2001, up to 228k at peak, down to 199k today. That makes it 36k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices. It also means Denver managed to never have a housing bubble.
Portland home prices:
From 166k in 2001, up to 295k at peak, down to 210k today. That makes it 6k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Seattle home prices:
From 274k in 2001, up to 465k at peak, down to 344k today. That makes it 7k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Minneapolis home prices:
From 142k in 2001, up to 223k at peak, down to 162k today. That makes it 12k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Chicago home prices:
From 165k in 2001, up to 265k at peak, down to 177k today. That makes it 26k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Miami Home prices:
From 135k in 2001, up to 360k at peak, down to 172k today. That makes it 6k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Orlando home prices:
From 108k in 2001, up to 233k at peak, down to 88k today. A full 45k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Atlanta home prices:
From 152k in 2001, up to 203k at peak, down to 128k today. A whopping 59k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Raleigh home prices:
From 151k in 2001, up to 198k at peak, down to 171k today. That makes it 15k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Pittsburgh home prices:
From 57k in 2001, up to 79k today. That makes it 9k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Cleveland home prices:
From 71k in 2001, up to 92k at peak, down to 54k today. That makes it 33k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
I am almost starting to believe the real estate industry when they claim it is a good time to buy. In a great deal of the country it really seems to be. Almost as interesting is the fact few people seem to have caught up to this information. For example if you look at the comments section of this article, almost no one seems to believe we are near bottom. That, along with overbuilding and the huge number of young people crushed under student loans, makes me think we will likely overshoot the bottom in many areas. Buying homes, and renting them, might actually start to make some financial sense for a change.
However, any way I look at it I don't come to the same conclusion in Southern California. Home prices are just too high compared to what they were a decade ago, without any good reason for them to be so. Maybe another two or three years of people leaving for these cheaper cities will change that though.
Playing with google
Someone pointed out that silly results come up with a google search of glmory. This post is entirely to try and move less annoying sites down the list by moving slightly less annoying things in google up the list.
glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory,
glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory, glmory,
Another crime article
Maybe the message that we live in the safest time in history will eventually sink in and people will stop being so paranoid. Somehow I am less than optimistic however. Still I am always happy when I see another article talking about how crime rates are at twenty year lows.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
No, you can't have my zip code
In an interesting ruling, the California Supreme Court has decided that it is against the law for merchants to make you provide a zip code when they use their credit card.
Tall buildings
The Atlantic has a particularly good article on why we should make it as easy as possible to build buildings as tall as possible in urban areas. As a country it really seems like we have become anti-development. This works well when protecting sensitive ecosystems, but is absolutely silly when applied to urban development. Few buildings are so nice as to require saving from demolition.
Another interesting fact:
Another interesting fact:
"The cheapest way to deliver new housing is in the form of mass-produced two-story homes, which typically cost only about $84 a square foot to erect. That low cost explains why Atlanta and Dallas and Houston are able to supply so much new housing at low prices, and why so many Americans have ended up buying affordable homes in those places... for ordinary skyscrapers, it doesn’t cost more than $500,000 to put up a nice 1,200-square-foot apartment. The land costs something, but in a 40-story building with one 1,200-square-foot unit per floor, each unit is using only 30 square feet of Manhattan—less than a thousandth of an acre. At those heights, the land costs become pretty small. If there were no restrictions on new construction, then prices would eventually come down to somewhere near construction costs, about $500,000 for a new apartment. That’s a lot more than the $210,000 that it costs to put up a 2,500-square-foot house in Houston—but a lot less than the $1 million or more that such an apartment often costs in Manhattan."
Monday, February 7, 2011
Places in California the housing bubble ended
I have long been predicting that home prices would at least hit inflation adjusted 2000 prices. My logic simply being that median incomes are no higher than then while unemployment rates are higher. How can home prices possibly stay higher than they were then?
Over building, poor local economies, and the shattering of the myth of housing as a good investment may cause home prices to over shoot 2000 prices; but outside areas with dramatic economic growth I don't expect prices to stay above those levels.
Now many areas in California seem to be at those price levels:
Sacramento home prices:
from 143k in 2001, up to 352k, back down to 171k. That makes it 4k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Fresno home prices:
From 97k in 2001, up to 282k at the peak and back down to 137k today. Only 10k more to fall to hit 2001 price levels.
Merced home prices:
From 117k in 2001, up to 339k at peak now down to 116k. This is a whopping 27k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Stockton home prices:
From 146k in 2001, up to 374k at the peak, now down to 130k. An astounding 50k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Riverside home prices:
from 147k in 2001, up to 412k at peak, down to 189k today. Only 9k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
San Bernardino home prices:
From 100k in 2001, up to 327k at peak, down to 122k today. Currently 1k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices
Bakersfield home Prices:
From 100k in 2001, up to 309k at peak, down to 131k today. Currently 8k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Santa Rosa home prices:
From 321k in 2001, up to 556k at peak, down to 307k today. Currently an impressive 88k below 2001 prices.
Gilroy home prices:
From 439k in 2001, to 724k at peak, down to 381k today. An almost investment worthy 100k lower than inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Fairfield home prices:
From 224k in 2001, up to 485k at peak, down to 217k today. A full 58k lower than 2001 prices.
Hayward home prices:
From 307k in 2001, up to 583k at peak, down to 280k today. A quite impressive 98k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Madera home prices:
From 107k in 2001, up to 303k at peak, down to 123k today. Currently 8k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Salinas home prices:
From 282k in 2001, up to 609k at peak, down to 226k today. An astronomical 121k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Santa Clara home prices:
From 501k in 2001, up to 696k at peak, down to 533k today. A full 83k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
More expensive areas in Southern California have yet to hit bottom. Inland California has had its bubble and can now return to its regularly scheduled economy. The bay area may stay high relative to the rest of the state, but it appears in much of it all of the gains from the past bubble have been eaten up. I have the poor luck of living in the one part of the state some of the bubble price gains have stuck. Now to must wait for further falls in the Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange areas. Now that prices are so cheap inland it is all but inevitable though in all but the wealthiest of areas. These inland areas will act as a sponge, sucking demand from the more expensive areas as people realize just how much farther their money would go elsewhere.
Over building, poor local economies, and the shattering of the myth of housing as a good investment may cause home prices to over shoot 2000 prices; but outside areas with dramatic economic growth I don't expect prices to stay above those levels.
Now many areas in California seem to be at those price levels:
Sacramento home prices:
from 143k in 2001, up to 352k, back down to 171k. That makes it 4k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Fresno home prices:
From 97k in 2001, up to 282k at the peak and back down to 137k today. Only 10k more to fall to hit 2001 price levels.
Merced home prices:
From 117k in 2001, up to 339k at peak now down to 116k. This is a whopping 27k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Stockton home prices:
From 146k in 2001, up to 374k at the peak, now down to 130k. An astounding 50k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Riverside home prices:
from 147k in 2001, up to 412k at peak, down to 189k today. Only 9k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
San Bernardino home prices:
From 100k in 2001, up to 327k at peak, down to 122k today. Currently 1k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices
Bakersfield home Prices:
From 100k in 2001, up to 309k at peak, down to 131k today. Currently 8k above inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Santa Rosa home prices:
From 321k in 2001, up to 556k at peak, down to 307k today. Currently an impressive 88k below 2001 prices.
Gilroy home prices:
From 439k in 2001, to 724k at peak, down to 381k today. An almost investment worthy 100k lower than inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Fairfield home prices:
From 224k in 2001, up to 485k at peak, down to 217k today. A full 58k lower than 2001 prices.
Hayward home prices:
From 307k in 2001, up to 583k at peak, down to 280k today. A quite impressive 98k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Madera home prices:
From 107k in 2001, up to 303k at peak, down to 123k today. Currently 8k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Salinas home prices:
From 282k in 2001, up to 609k at peak, down to 226k today. An astronomical 121k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
Santa Clara home prices:
From 501k in 2001, up to 696k at peak, down to 533k today. A full 83k below inflation adjusted 2001 prices.
More expensive areas in Southern California have yet to hit bottom. Inland California has had its bubble and can now return to its regularly scheduled economy. The bay area may stay high relative to the rest of the state, but it appears in much of it all of the gains from the past bubble have been eaten up. I have the poor luck of living in the one part of the state some of the bubble price gains have stuck. Now to must wait for further falls in the Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange areas. Now that prices are so cheap inland it is all but inevitable though in all but the wealthiest of areas. These inland areas will act as a sponge, sucking demand from the more expensive areas as people realize just how much farther their money would go elsewhere.
Sunday, February 6, 2011
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